When Panthers was in Big East land: Let my college go,

Oppress’s so hard they could not stand, Let my college go.

Go down, Nordberg,

Way down in Big East’s land,

Tell Marinatto,

Let my college go.

Word on the street is that West Virginia sent some paperwork as a precursor to application with the SEC. Word on the street is that this was basically WVU asking the SEC if they could apply. Normally schools don’t apply unless they’re going to be accepted, ie they informally and quietly declare their intentions to apply, and if the conference then says “sure apply away” it means they’ve talked internally (maybe only on the phone with each other) and come to the conclusion that they’ll vote yes to the application. The team then applies formally, and usually is accepted in a day or two.

Word on the street is that WVU heard back from the SEC saying not to apply.

Ouch.

I hope the rumored Big-12/Big East merger happens for WVU’s sake. I’d hate to seem them left out of a good conference.

Update** It gets worse for WVU. Apparently they were rejected by BOTH the SEC and ACC. Probably because while they’re a great football school, the university itself is pretty low ranked.

http://www.wvmetronews.com/wvu.cfm?func=displayfullstory&storyid=47954

Word is that with Pittsburgh heading to the ACC, the Big 12 took a hit. They apparently saw Pittsburgh, for some reason, as the good replacement for A&M. I just don’t see how that would have flown with Pittsburgh fans.

Anyway, with Pittsburgh and Syracuse heading to the ACC, apparently the head is on, and we could see a Pac 16 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech heading to the PAC within days. With WVU filing papers with the SEC to go there to be 14, and UConn “aggressively” pursuing the ACC invite, and Rutgers talking to not just the ACC but the B1G things could be interesting. A Very different world in the week.

The dominos are falling. Exciting to see where they’ll land.

I’m just happy Pittsburgh has a home in a conference, and isn’t getting left out with the trash.

It’s like a leadership case study in what NOT to do.

John Marinatto that is.

Pitt and Syracuse have now officially been accepted to the ACC, and it’s up to the negotiators to see when they make the switch. There is even money on it being next year. West Virginia now is being reported to have sent paperwork to the SEC to apply there (and you don’t send paperwork in these cases unless the new league has said “yeah you’re good send it to us”). WVU will likely be announced as the 14th SEC team within days.

There’s also word on the street that Pitt and WVU had close discussions regarding their futures in the big east for the past 18 months, along with Syracuse in some cases. In particular the maintaining of the Backyard Brawl between Pitt and WVU when both teams go to different conferences (ala the Florida/Florida State rivalry game). Word is that the game will be maintained, once WVU is SEC and Pitt is ACC.

How did this happen though? Could the Big East have done anything differently? Well it’s hard to say. A strong leader could certainly have done something differently, but Marinatto is either not a strong leader, or he’s handicapped by the basketball only schools of the Big East. That was always one of the big problems. The basketball only programs (Seton Hall, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Marquette, Depaul, Providence, and St.Johns) had way too much weight. The Big East Offices were in Providence. The comissioners were from Providence College. It was dead weight for a football conference. Sure it made a heck of a basketball conference, but the big schools, the ones not previously raided by the ACC and the only remaining real football tradition schools (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia) were itching. Marinatto made a move to bring in Villanova and the football schools blocked it. Because it was embarrasing to them. They wanted stronger action.

TCU was probably a good move, but it smacked of desparation. Since then, and before, the big schools have been keeping their ears to the ground.

Now with the latest round of expansion talks blooming, the Big East.. Did nothing. They sat there waiting with the hope of the Big 12 collapsing, which it still might. Instead now they’re even weaker than before, losing 5 teams to the ACC in 8 years.

The Football teams wanted more proactive behavior. They wanted to make football a strength. they might even have wanted to ditch the basketball only schools. Marinatto wasn’t having it. The 8 votes of the basketball schools made it hard for the league to do anything that was bad for basketball. It was unweildy, unstable, and Pitt and Syracuse said “ok thanks but we’re going to look after ourselves”.

Sort of like Iowa State and Baylor freaking out. No schools want to be left out of the money or superconference pies. So they gave the Big East time, and whatever they were promised just wasn’t enough.

So now we have Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC, WVU almost certain into the SEC, and now rumblings of Rutgers and UConn joining their Big East breathern in the ACC bringing it to a 16 team superconference, and truly dominant on the East Coast.

Let’s look at the maps….

The new reality as of today. The ACC now in most of the Atlantic coastal states. But why settle for most?

The likely reality in the next few days or weeks. Rutgers and UConn joining the ACC. WVU and A&M to the SEC and the Big East down to their beloved 8 basketball schools, and 4 football schools S.O.L. So what then?

It starts looking likely that a Big 12 / Big East Merger would be in the works. It actually really just means that the Big 12 absorbs the 4 football teams left (Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, and TCU) making itself (other than USF) a pretty solid middle of the country conference. Though not really market friendly… But…

What if the Pac 12 says “fuckit” and grabs Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State? That new Big 12 is back down to 8, and looks more rejecty than ever. A step above Conference USA certainly, but by much?

Who knows what could happen really at that point. The Big 12 could grab Houston, Air Force, and BYU to get back up to 12 schools. They’d still have a reasonable central footprint but it’d be a fiarly bastardized ocnference. And this assumes the Big 10 stays at 12 rather than goes up to 14 or 16 now to compete with the ACC and PAC mentality, and the SEC doesn’t either. Missouri would be gone in a heartbeat to either the SEC or B1G. Really any of them would. If the Kansas legislature wouldn’t prevent it you could easily see Kansas and Missouri moving to the B1G grabbing markets 21 and 32 in the country. The SEC who knows. They might stick with 14, they don’t ned more to get respect. But they could grab Louisville, or Missouri.

Anyway. I don’t know how I feel yet about Pitt’s move. I hate that College Football is about money and stability rather than regional rivalries. Pitt vs Maryland games could be a good rivalry, and as long as the Backyard Brawl is maintained it could be good.

Depending on how they split up the schedule and conferences… Say

Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College

Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse

Say a cross rivalry game every year with Maryland, and then one with another team….plus WVU and Notre Dame would make a Pittsburgh theoretical schedule of

Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Maryland, WVU, Notre Dame, plus a couple cupcakes, or one cupcake and one out of conference (like say Penn State). I can live with that.

The SEC voted to accept Texas A&M into the SEC, though there is apparently the possibility of legal action by Baylor which might prevent the move still. Whatever that is, affects it. The SEC won’t take A&M if there is threat of legal action, so whatever Baylor is doing could hold up the next domino. However, enough money wants this to happen. I don’t see Baylor being able to stop it in the long run, it’s just a matter of how long it can prevent that first now wiggling domino from truly falling and setting off a cascade.

After that all bets are off.

The SEC will most likely want to move to 14, which means adding 1 more. Which means poaching a decent school Missouri, and West Virginia have been bandied about. I don’t know what their exit clauses are. I know Missouri REALLY wanted to go to the Big 10, but I’ve read that they are less inclined to go to the SEC because of cultural and academic differences. However, I just don’t see a Big 12 school in their currently teetering conference from turning down the SEC. It could happen though. West Virginia however, I think would bolt the Big East even if it cost them millions to do so, in order to get into the SEC.  I can’t see them sticking around if given the opportunity. Both schools would add additional markets to the SEC that are sizable (St.Louis, Kansas City, Pittsburgh).  It’s all about the Benjamins. They’ve also mentioned some North Carolina and Virginia schools, but I think taking say Virginia Tech or North Carolina is going to come over more objections than to either Mizzou or West Virginia. Time will tell. Right now my money would be on WVU heading to the SEC.

And the dominos would continue to topple. The question is which would be next. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas might finally make that plunge, and make their joint application to the Pac-12. The Pac-12 won’t approach the schools at this point, so the schools will have to go to them. If they do so though the Pac-12 will instantly become the Pac-16.

With that the Big-12 will effectively be dead. Whether the scraps try and scrape up some teams to join, or move to other conferences is hard to tell.

If the Big East however loses WVU slipping back to 12 teams you can BET they’ll move on adding 4 and getting to 12 sooner rather than later, and no they won’t take Villanova. Offers will go out to Missouri, Kansas and Kansas State, and those schools now looking at it being them, Baylor, and Iowa State, most likely will take that offer. That will bring the Big East to 11, and then the question will be who do they proffer the 12th spot. Do they take Baylor or Iowa State also? Do they make a move on Houston? I think the talk of UCF and ECU is basically garbage, they’re not coming to the Big East party. I’d say we’re looking at one of those previous three schools (Baylor, Iowa State, and Houston) also getting an invite to the Big East. My money would be on Houston though, to spread into more markets. It’s all about the Benjamins.

This would bring the SEC to 14, the PAC to 16, the Big10 to 12, the ACC to 12, and the Big East to 12, with 2 former Big 12 members staring from the outside in (Baylor and Iowa State). The question the becomes do those two schools scrape up some other schools to reform the Big 12? Do they apply to the MWC hoping for future BCS status there? Do they go independent?

The next few weeks should be interesting.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings

As suspected South Florida gets ranked at #22. West Virginia moves up to #19. Pitt gets 11 votes, essentially giving it a ranking of #38.

The coaches poll, they are lower. West Virginia at #24, South Florida at #27 and Pitt getting no votes, but Cincinnati picking up 1 vote. I still feel that the Coaches Poll is complete bullshit. There’s just no way that a coach, during the season, has enough time to adequately spend time evaluating the other teams, even if they delegate the ranks. It just is meaningless. Or at least it should be.

The AP rank at least polls a bunch of different journalists who are actually PAID to pay attention to this stuff. Not saying the rankings are perfect, but generally a deserving team is going to get SOME votes.

Good for South Florida though, and good for the Big East. Here’s hoping that they, West Virginia, and some other teams (Pitt, Syracuse, Cinci maybe) all keep playing well and have a shot at cracking into the top 25. It’d be nice to get a team up into the top 10, and at least 3-4 teams overall in the rankings.

I’m itching to see the AP Top 25 Poll coming out today. Coaches poll not so much, but curious there too. How much of a hit will Notre Dame, and TCU take? Were any of the low ranked (20-25) not good enough to slip out, and other slip in?

I think to be fair Baylor and South Florida deserve a spot. South Florida particularly. Going on the road in a week 1 game against a #16 ranked (granted preseason rank) Notre Dame in Notre Dame, and winning that game. That’s alot more meaningful, even if ND isn’t as good this year as people hoped, than beating say… Akron…or Tulsa…or Buffalo…or Some FCS team nobody has ever heard of.

How high should South Florida be ranked? I dunno. I think it’s worthy of bumping them up to the teens. Maybe high teens, but just being ranked I think is deserving. West Virginia beating Marshall wasn’t as impressive, but they should maintain their rank, and the Big East should have two ranked teams going into Week 2 (and an undefeated schedule so far).

So far so good for the conference this year. This week’s contests though should be a bit more challenging with some SEC teams (granted crappy ones) in the mix.

Now my Week 2 predictions (biased)

Louisville vs Florida International on Friday. The Red Birds should take this one and go 2-0.

Saturday

Rutgers vs North Carolina. No idea on this one. We’ll see how much that work the offense got last week for Rutgers can play on a BCS Conference team. Hope Rutgers wins, but I won’t put money on it.

Pittsburgh vs Maine. Another warm up for the High Octane offense. Hopefully some of the kinks worked out last week by the 2nd half will allow Pittsburgh to crush Maine. They’ll win either way by at least 2 TD’s, and hopefully we can see some improvement on Defense.

West Virginia will play Norfolk State. They’ll obliterate them.

Syracuse will play Rhode Island. They’ll obliterate them.

South Florida will play Ball State. They’ll obliterate them.

Cincinnati will play Tennessee. Cinci seems like they might be slowly rebounding from last year, and Tennessee isn’t exactly at a high point of their program. I think Cinci takes it in a close game at home. That or they get blown out by TN amped up at home.

Connecticut at Vanderbilt. Defending Big East Champs but with such a different team and a new coach against the perenial “they’re in the SEC?” team. I think Connecticut takes it, but it’ll be competitive.

–

I think at least one or two of the Big East teams will lose this week. If it’s one, probably Rutgers, if it’s two add in Cincinnati. The rest I think will come through, and the top three West Virginia, South Florida, and Pitt will continue. Pitt won’t make the rankings next week either (they’ll have beaten Buffalo and Maine…They wouldn’t deserve it) but if the following week they beat Iowa and go 3-0 we might start seeing them crack the top 25. If they go 4-0 by beating ND the following week, regardless of whether ND is ranked at that point, they’ll probably make the top 25. That’s probably the best the Big East can hope for by the end of week 4, 3 ranked teams. But who knows. Rutgers doesn’t have a strong enough schedule even if they beat North Carolina. Even 4-0 they won’t be ranked. Cincinati if they dominate Tennesee and North Carolina State in week 4 and go 4-0 (they also play Akron) then maybe they might get ranked. They’ll have to really be strong in their games. Connecticut could go 4-0 and get ranked, possibly, but also not likely unless they’re STRONG in their games. Vanderbilt, Iowa State and then Buffalo. I don’t know if that’s enough to get ranked at 4-0. Maybe if enough other teams fall out. Probably the strongest chance of getting a 4th ranked team is actually the Orange. They’ve beaten an ACC team, and will romp on Rhode Island and Toledo, but if they also go strong on USC in week 3, then we could see them ranked before we enter Big East play.

The best thing for the Big East would be to win every game they can, and to get as many ranked teams before they get into  the Top 25 and the BCS calculations start going into effect. That will help them in future weeks to maintain, and increase rankings when they start knocking each other off. It’ll be much better for say West Virginia or Pitt or South Florida for each of those teams to be ranked when they play, and for one of those teams to emerge as dominant in the league going undefeated or only one loss, and finishing the season with a high, top 10 rank.

After the year of mediocrity last year, someone really needs to step up this year. I hope it’s Pitt, but for the conferences sake, it’s gotta be someone.

I heard more talk about how the Big 12 plans “agressive expansion” in response to A&M’s departure, and once again heard Pitt’s name thrown into the mix.

Which is kind of weird. Normally I’m used to the sports world “shitting on Pitt” but now it seems like it’s being treated as some sort of jewel to be taken from an otherwise mediocre conference. I guess Pitt and West Virginia both most leagues wouldn’t mind having, as long as it opens up a new media market (ie Big 10 doesn’t need Pittsburgh, they have Penn State) and makes some kind of even borderline geographic sense (The Pac 12 isn’t going to offer membership to West Virginia).

But what does “agressive” mean?

I’ve heard Notre Dame’s name bandied about a few times. If ND goes to the Big 12 I’ll eat my hat. There’s no way. If they ever end up forced to join a conference it’ll be the Big 10, or the Big East. My money would be on a Big East (as long as it doesn’t get raided into the ground) simply because I bet Notre Dame could call the shots in the Big East. Anywhere else they’re trapped more, but ND could come to the Big East say “We’re joining in football BUT….” and probably get what they ask for. Say their share of the Big East media revenues, but their own deal with NBC on the side they don’t have to share.

But the Big 12? Yeah they can have their own media deal there, but it’d trash the history and teams they like to play. I just don’t see them going for it.

BYU has been mentioned. Distance is large, but not insurmountable. I think it’d be a good move for BYU, but I’ve also heard a few things about how it’s not what BYU wants. They didn’t go independent to join another conference, they went independent for their own reasons. I suppose it’s possible BYU joins, but word on the street is that this too is a longshot.

That’s when names like Pitt start entering the mix, and it scares me a bit that Pitt is so high up on the list. “Take Pittsburgh and Louisville”.

I dunno. I just don’t want to see Pittsburgh play in a conference where their conference opponents are Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Missouri, and Louisville, and a crossover game once a year with say Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and an additional new team. Like Houston.

I’m sure they could TRY and maintain a Backyard Brawl game and a regular game with Notre Dame, but…What if this was this years schedule… Keeping it’s out of conference matchups, and the Notre Dame game, but swapping in a new Big 12 North conference schedule….

Buffalo
Maine
Iowa
Kansas
Notre Dame
Iowa State
Utah
Missouri
Kansas State
West Virginia
Texas Tech
Louisville

Stronger? Ugh, maybe slightly. If it was Texas rather than Texas tech even more so, but that’d be once every 6 years. Otherwise it might be Baylor. It just doesn’t feel like a Pitt schedule. Even before the Big East they didn’t play these teams alot. I know money talks and walks, but there has to be SOME sort of regional sense.

I’m all for getting Pitt into a better position, but sorry to those from other conferences who love their conferences and more power to them but i LIKE the teams we play. It does feel like a Northeastern League.

Sure if there was some magical world where we could make a new football conference that had

Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Michigan State, Buffalo, Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana, and Syracuse

I’d love that conference. Or…

Boston College, Connecticut, Syracuse, Buffalo, Army, Rutgers, Temple, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Maryland, and Navy

I’d love that one too…They’d both feel more like teams in our regions.

The new Big 12 though

Texas, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Louisville, Pittsburgh?

One of these things is not like the other….

It’s why in my previous post I talked about bringing over West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Cincinnati, that way the weight of the ‘new’ Big 12 North shifts it’s balance a bit eastward as well.  I could probably stomach it more if we had WV, Louisville, and Cinci on the schedule more often.

When it comes down to it though, right now the Big 12 is struggling to exist. Before A&M’s stab in the back, I’d have said it was the stronger conference, but right now they’re desparate, and maybe, just maybe, even though they ahve some stronger football teams, they’re in MORE trouble thatn the Big East, which puts the Big East in the position of not being the conference to be raided, but to be the one doing the raiding.

If the Big East is to continue to exist, then maybe it needs to hear the Big 12 talking about aggressive expansion and mentioning Pittsburgh, and realize that another salvo stripping power teams from the conference like the ACC did might be on the way.  If they made a play for Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri RIGHT NOW, would they get them? I don’t know. Word is those schools are scared about what happens to them, and in certain realignment scenarios they get left out in the cold if the Big 12 scuttles.

Who knows.

I just know that I’d prefer Pitt stay in the Big East.

The Big 12 is in trouble. They’ve been raided a few times in the past couple of years, losing Colorado and Nebraska, and now Texas A&M is as good as gone begging to the SEC.

It’s a strong conference though, and they still have more leverage than the ACC and Big East as far as money, and name recognition. However, what to do? They can’t raid the SEC, the undisputed top dogs of college football. Nobody is leaving the SEC for the Big 12. Maybe Arkansas. But generally it’s not going to happen. Same with the Big 10 and Pac 10. they all have more leverage than the Big 12.

So what to do.

Well let’s look at the map.

There’s not alot of great choices. Sun Belt and CUSA teams. They could go the route the Big East did and add more teams and rely on the quality of their top names, however I think this would probably cause the Big 12 to slip even more. Relying on their better teams to now make up for the lesser competition and become more average overall, akin to what’s happened to the Big East.

But there has now started to be speculation that the Big 12 wants to make some moves, including ones further afield.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/college/pitt/s_753934.html

The rumor mill is swirling. If they can’t rid the SEC or Big 10 or Pac 10… They can raid… the Big East. At first this sounds preposterous. Some names bandied about were Rutgers, Pitt and West Virginia moving to the Big 12. Three teams to bring them up to 12 teams. Given the fact these guys have to fly all over anyway, and the market size it’s not the most ridculous idea. However as a Pitt fan would you want to be in a division with

Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri

It just feels… weird.

However….

What if the Big 12 raided Pitt, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville. Then bring in Houston to make the first 16 team conference. Everyone’s been talking about it, but nobody has made that move yet to 16 teams and a super conference. The Big 12 could do it.

Southern Division

Texas, Baylor, Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Norther Division

Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State

I could actually see that.

Imagine a conference championship held in the Cotton Bowl between Texas and West Virginia.

I guess it could happen.